Have Taylor’s Model Re-Recordings Crowded Out the Originals?

With Taylor Swift’s re-recorded model of Communicate Now topping the Billboard 200 albums chart and reaching the largest week of 2023, the singer has pitted her new variations in opposition to the unique variations she launched by way of Massive Machine Label Group in 2010. That might be seen as one other blow for Shamrock Capital, which bought Swift’s Massive Machine catalog in 2020. But when Swift thought her re-recordings would erode the efficiency of the Massive Machine originals, she was mistaken — for probably the most half. The unique variations owned by Shamrock did properly by way of 2022 and haven’t proven a lot clear proof of attrition till 2023, in response to Billboard’s evaluation of Luminate gross sales and streaming information in america.

Via 2022, Swift’s Massive Machine catalog has carried out roughly in step with trade tendencies. Take Swift’s 2008 album Fearless, for instance: It generated on-demand audio streams of 230.5 million in 2019 and 345.3 million in 2022 — a rise of 49.8% over three years. Had the album’s streams grown in step with the trade’s annual progress in on-demand audio streams — 48.3% from 2019 to 2022 —Fearless would have had 341.9 million on-demand audio streams. That’s solely a 1% variation.

The unique model of Swift’s 2012 album Purple did even higher than Fearless, producing 283.5 million on-demand audio streams in 2019 and 484.7 million on-demand audio streams in 2022, about 19% higher than what could be anticipated. Had the album’s streams grown in step with the trade’s annual progress in on-demand audio streams — 17.3% in 2020, 12.7% in 2021 and 12.2% in 2022 — Purple would have had 420.6 million on-demand audio streams.

On the similar time, Swift’s re-recordings have achieved phenomenally properly. Because the starting of 2021, the three Taylor’s Model albums have accounted for 3.88 billion on-demand audio streams to the unique variations’ 2.86 billion on-demand audio streams. The precise numbers are much more skewed within the Taylor’s Variations’ favor because the re-recordings of Communicate Now had been launched on July 7 of this 12 months and have a quick streaming historical past. Since 2021, Purple (Taylor’s Model) has generated 2.6 occasions extra on-demand audio streams than the unique model, whereas Fearless (Taylor’s Model) has about 1.9 occasions as many on-demand audio streams.

All of the work Swift did to advertise her re-recordings, in addition to the success of her Republic Information albums and her present U.S. tour, could have additionally helped gross sales of the unique Massive Machine catalog. The unique model of Purple has offered extra albums — 26,000 — by way of week 28 of 2023 than in all of 2022 and is already near surpassing gross sales numbers for calendar years 2019, 2020 and 2021. Communicate Now has additionally surpassed final 12 months’s album gross sales and is on monitor to beat annual gross sales from 2019 to 2021.

After all, Shamrock doesn’t benefit from the spoils of the three albums of re-recordings. Via week 28 of this 12 months, Communicate Now (Taylor’s Model), Fearless (Taylor’s Model) and Purple (Taylor’s Model) have offered 2.23 million models in america. However these couldn’t be thought of gross sales that had been misplaced to Shamrock. Whether or not or not Swift re-recorded the three albums, Shamrock would profit solely from the gross sales of the unique variations. And thus far, it doesn’t seem the Taylor’s Model albums are crowding these out.

Streaming is a distinct story, although. There may be some proof that the Taylor’s Model reissues have led to a decline in streams for the unique Massive Machine albums. Within the 18 weeks earlier than the discharge of Purple (Taylor’s Model) on Nov. 11, 2021, the unique model averaged 9.7 million on-demand audio streams per week. Within the 18 weeks after Purple (Taylor’s Model) was launched, the unique model’s weekly on-demand audio streams declined 41% to five.7 million.

And regardless of placing up first rate streaming numbers by way of 2022, the unique variations of Fearless and Purple have underperformed expectations in 2023. The general market’s on-demand audio streams grew 13.5% within the first 28 weeks of 2023. Had Fearless matched the market’s progress, the album would have generated about 296 million streams by way of week 28. As an alternative, the unique model of Fearless had roughly 162 million streams — greater than 45% beneath expectations. Purple carried out higher however was additionally off the market’s tempo. Via week 28, the unique model of Purple had 181.6 million on-demand audio streams — about 14% beneath expectations.

Whereas the unique variations have held up pretty properly in purchases and, till this 12 months, on-demand audio streams, the largest loss might be the dearth of synch alternatives. Swift’s re-recordings have been utilized in a Match.com advert in 2020 (“Love Story [Taylor’s Version]”), the film Spirit Untamed in 2021 (“Wildest Dreams [Taylor’s Version]”) and the film DC League of Tremendous-Pets in 2022 (“Unhealthy Blood [Taylor’s Version], the one tune from the album 1989 that has thus far been re-recorded).

Finally, nonetheless, Swift’s re-recordings could also be extra chargeable for her consumption growth than the unique Massive Machine variations. Swift’s annual on-demand audio streams greater than doubled between 2019 and 2022 — from 3.12 billion to 7.85 billion. If she continues her present tempo, her on-demand audio streams will enhance greater than 74% in 2023. The re-recordings have added to the deafening buzz round her Republic Information albums. The Massive Machine originals are merely alongside for the journey.

Shamrock didn’t reply to Billboard‘s request for touch upon this story.